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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.07 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.77 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.71 / defence 1.26 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 21% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 53%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, FSV Mainz 05 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights