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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.42 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.00 / defence 1.39 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.70 / defence 1.01, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 45% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 32%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 64%, FC St. Pauli 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 0.72 PPG, FC St. Pauli 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights