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Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.53 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.23 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 26% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 53%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 58%, Borussia Dortmund 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights