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Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.40 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.74 / defence 1.22 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.38 / defence 0.86, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 14% | Draw 18% | Bayer Leverkusen 69%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights