FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Augsburg (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Augsburg face Werder Bremen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in FC Augsburg's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: FC Augsburg 5W, Werder Bremen 3W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–1 with FC Augsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 60% versus Werder Bremen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 63% | Werder Bremen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.20 xG and Werder Bremen 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.023 / defence 0.900 | Werder Bremen attack 0.905 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 FC Augsburg games / 35 Werder Bremen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 62% | Draw 21% | Werder Bremen 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Werder Bremen 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Werder Bremen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 62% | Draw 21% | Werder Bremen 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Augsburg 2.20 / Werder Bremen 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.023 / def 0.900 | Werder Bremen attack 0.905 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Werder Bremen xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 62% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
Record (10 meetings): FC Augsburg 5W | Draws 2 | Werder Bremen 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.02) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.91x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.68
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.29
1.09
Werder Bremen xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
11%
9.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
53.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.09 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 13W 7D 15L from 35 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 19L across 35 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Augsburg by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 8W 5D 5L from 18 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 3W 4D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.09 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Werder Bremen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 7D 15L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 8W 8D 19L in their last 35 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Werder Bremen away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.61 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 56%, Werder Bremen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Augsburg) and 56% (Werder Bremen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Werder Bremen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 50% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Augsburg's matches and 56% of Werder Bremen's.
Do FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.