FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FSV Mainz 05 (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FSV Mainz 05 face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Mewa Arena to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Mewa Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FSV Mainz 05 are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1, with 6 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 60% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 51% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.57 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.754 / defence 0.949 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.796 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.981 / away 1.344. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 FSV Mainz 05 games / 36 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 49% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 23%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.35. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 49% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.57 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.754 / def 0.949 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.796 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.981 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Mewa Arena.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 49% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (10 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 3W | Draws 6 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 0.75x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.68
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.59
1.02
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
5%
20.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.02 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 10W 11D 14L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 9W 10D 16L from 35 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.17 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1.00 PPG from 18 outings (4W 6D 8L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 5D 10L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.29 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 10D 16L in their last 35 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.00 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.78 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (FSV Mainz 05) and 56% (Borussia Mönchengladbach).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 39% of games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 44% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 56% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.