FC Augsburg 0-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 January 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.50 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to VfB Stuttgart, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VfB Stuttgart have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 65% and VfB Stuttgart 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 65% | VfB Stuttgart 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.35 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.841 / defence 0.890 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.057 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.463. Data: 49 FC Augsburg games / 49 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | VfB Stuttgart 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Augsburg 1.35 / VfB Stuttgart 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.841 / def 0.890 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.057 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.38
VfB Stuttgart xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
FC Augsburg 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 35% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (6 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 4W.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.84) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.06x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.54
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.73
1.38
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.38 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 13D 22L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.96 PPG from 49 outings (29W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 10W 7D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — FC Augsburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.67 points per game from 24 outings (12W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.18 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 13D 22L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 29W 9D 11L in their last 49 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.54 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
8
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 67%, VfB Stuttgart 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for FC Augsburg and 75% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Augsburg's games and 58% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of FC Augsburg's matches and 75% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FC Augsburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 0-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.35 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.38 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 37%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 65%, VfB Stuttgart 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.