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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat FC Augsburg 1-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.05 xG and Union Berlin 1.05 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.67 / defence 0.88 against Union Berlin attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 34%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, Union Berlin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.22 PPG, Union Berlin 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights