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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin encounter.

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Full Analysis

WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

FC Augsburg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WWK Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Union Berlin have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for FC Augsburg, 1.40 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Historically, FC Augsburg have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Union Berlin managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with FC Augsburg winning.

The historical record gives FC Augsburg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Union Berlin — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 57% versus Union Berlin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 57% | Union Berlin 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.05 xG and Union Berlin 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.673 / defence 0.878 | Union Berlin attack 0.809 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.481. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 FC Augsburg games / 67 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Union Berlin 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 30% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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