FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

FC Augsburg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SC Freiburg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.90 for SC Freiburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 6 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 60% and SC Freiburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 63% | SC Freiburg 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.77 xG and SC Freiburg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.013 / defence 0.904 | SC Freiburg attack 0.899 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.981 / away 1.344. Data: 35 FC Augsburg games / 36 SC Freiburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 52% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | SC Freiburg 4.35. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 70% | SC Freiburg 30%.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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