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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg finished level at 2-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.41 xG and SC Freiburg 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.73 / defence 0.98 against SC Freiburg attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 55%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.14 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights