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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 January 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form

FC Augsburg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

SC Freiburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Freiburg are 0.60 PPG clear of FC Augsburg in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with FC Augsburg winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 49% versus SC Freiburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 55% | SC Freiburg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.41 xG and SC Freiburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.726 / defence 0.982 | SC Freiburg attack 0.880 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.443. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 FC Augsburg games / 51 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 50% | SC Freiburg 50%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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