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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Holstein Kiel cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Holstein Kiel beat FC Augsburg 1-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.28 xG and Holstein Kiel 0.97 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Holstein Kiel outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.67 / defence 0.75 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 27%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 55%, Holstein Kiel 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.26 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights