FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, FSV Mainz 05 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
FSV Mainz 05 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FSV Mainz 05 have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and FSV Mainz 05 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 67% | FSV Mainz 05 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.81 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.919 / defence 1.056 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.263 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. FSV Mainz 05 have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 FC Augsburg games / 42 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | FSV Mainz 05 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG FC Augsburg 1.81 / FSV Mainz 05 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.919 / def 1.056 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.263 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.83
FSV Mainz 05 xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 38% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (10 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 1 | FSV Mainz 05 7W.
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.92x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (1.26x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
38%
2.61
23%
4.43
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.65
1.83
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.33
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.83 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 14W 10D 18L from 42 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 18L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.19 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 8W 8D 5L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 9W 5D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.45 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.52 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
7
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 62%, FSV Mainz 05 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for FC Augsburg and 67% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Augsburg's games and 62% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC Augsburg's matches and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.