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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Augsburg 1-4 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.42 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.56 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 41%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, FSV Mainz 05 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.24 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights