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Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.29 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.17 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.77 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 31% | FC St. Pauli 31%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, FC St. Pauli 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.17 PPG, FC St. Pauli 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights