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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 1-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.72 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.04 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 40% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.23 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights