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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.33 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.27 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 21% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 59%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 59%, Bayer Leverkusen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights