FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen – Match Report

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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat FC Augsburg 0-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.30 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.55 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 30% | Draw 30% | Bayer Leverkusen 40%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 66%, Bayer Leverkusen 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights