FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: FC Augsburg 3W, 1. FC Köln 4W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and 1. FC Köln 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 67% | 1. FC Köln 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.82 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.919 / defence 1.056 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.773 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. Data: 42 FC Augsburg games / 42 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Köln 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Köln 4.35. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Köln 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Augsburg 1.82 / 1. FC Köln 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.919 / def 1.056 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.773 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
1. FC Köln xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 53% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
Record (10 meetings): FC Augsburg 3W | Draws 3 | 1. FC Köln 4W.
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.92x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.77x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.18
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.94
1.12
1. FC Köln xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
4%
27.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.12 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 10D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 0.98 PPG from 42 outings (9W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for FC Augsburg against 0.98 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 8W 8D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (2W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.38 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 79%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 9W 14D 19L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1. FC Köln away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.52 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for FC Augsburg, 71% for 1. FC Köln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Augsburg) and 52% (1. FC Köln).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Augsburg's games and 71% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 52% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.