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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Köln.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat 1. FC Köln 2-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.64 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.06 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Köln landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.79 / defence 1.19, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 24%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, 1. FC Köln 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.25 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights