FC Augsburg 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Augsburg's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: FC Augsburg 2W, 1. FC Köln 4W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 65% and 1. FC Köln 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 58% | 1. FC Köln 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.61 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.968 / defence 0.938 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.836 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.403. Data: 60 FC Augsburg games / 60 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 47% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Köln 4.17. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
1. FC Köln lead the H2H ledger, but FC Augsburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | 1. FC Köln 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 47% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Augsburg 1.61 / 1. FC Köln 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.968 / def 0.938 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.836 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
1. FC Köln xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 47% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
Record (7 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 4W.
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.97x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.84x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.44
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.72
1.10
1. FC Köln xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
5%
21.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.10 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 15D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.00 PPG from 60 outings (13W 21D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.00 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 11W 9D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 0.93 points per game from 30 outings (5W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 13W 21D 26L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1. FC Köln away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.40 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 63%, 1. FC Köln 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Augsburg) and 43% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC Augsburg's games and 60% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 43% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 27, as FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.61 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.10 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 47% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 24%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 58%, 1. FC Köln 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.15 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.