Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Union Berlin to Frankfurt Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Frankfurt Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 1.40 (Union Berlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, Union Berlin 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Frankfurt 67% versus Union Berlin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Union Berlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.58 xG and Union Berlin 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.044 / defence 0.905 | Union Berlin attack 0.622 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.389. Data: 60 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 60 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 17%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Union Berlin 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | Union Berlin 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Frankfurt Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.58 / Union Berlin 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.044 / def 0.905 | Union Berlin attack 0.622 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Union Berlin xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Frankfurt Arena.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Frankfurt Arena.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 55% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 3W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 2W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.04) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.52
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.36
0.78
Union Berlin xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
4%
28.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.78 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 23W 21D 16L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 22L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.50 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 15W 10D 4L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 9W 3D 17L across 29 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.27 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Union Berlin away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.90 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, Union Berlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, Union Berlin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 48% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Union Berlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 41% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 48% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Eintracht Frankfurt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin finished level at 0-0 at Frankfurt Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.58 xG and Union Berlin 0.78 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against Union Berlin attack 0.62 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 17%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 60%, Union Berlin 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 PPG, Union Berlin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.