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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 12, as Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 49% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 27%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 67%, VfL Wolfsburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights