Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg make the trip to Deutsche Bank Park to face Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record at Deutsche Bank Park: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Deutsche Bank Park.
VfL Wolfsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Eintracht Frankfurt's favour (1.70 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eintracht Frankfurt lead 1W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
VfL Wolfsburg half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 67% and VfL Wolfsburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 67% | VfL Wolfsburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.078 / defence 0.982 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.867 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.472. Data: 45 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 45 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 49% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 27%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.70. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
VfL Wolfsburg lead the H2H ledger, but Eintracht Frankfurt carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Frankfurt 40% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 49% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.078 / def 0.982 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.867 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.25
VfL Wolfsburg xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 49% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (8 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 4 | VfL Wolfsburg 3W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.08) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.87x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.10
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.00
1.25
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
5%
21.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.25 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 23W 11D 11L from 45 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 20L across 45 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Wolfsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 13W 4D 5L from 22 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record stands at 10W 3D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 11D 11L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.95 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
5
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 59% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 59% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 59% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 12, as Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 49% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 27%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 67%, VfL Wolfsburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.