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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 2-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.78 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.48 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.50 / defence 1.15, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 28% | Draw 19% | VfB Stuttgart 53%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 66%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights