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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg 2-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 xG and SC Freiburg 1.25 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against SC Freiburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 23%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 67%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights