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Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 4-1 hammering of SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg 4-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 xG and SC Freiburg 1.21 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.19 / defence 1.09 against SC Freiburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 19%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights