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FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.29 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.85 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.35 / defence 1.00 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.25 / defence 1.01, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 47% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 30%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, FSV Mainz 05 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights