Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg finished level at 2-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 3.09 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.41 / defence 0.91 against FC Augsburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.32, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 78% | Draw 15% | FC Augsburg 7%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, FC Augsburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights