🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Eintracht Frankfurt.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.44 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.26 / defence 0.92 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.14 / defence 0.71, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 35%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights