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1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.42 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 67%, 1899 Hoffenheim 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights