Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg meet at BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at BORUSSIA-PARK this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of VfL Wolfsburg's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfL Wolfsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with VfL Wolfsburg managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2025, ended 1–5 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Mönchengladbach and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% and VfL Wolfsburg 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.074 / defence 1.187 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.938 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.481. Data: 67 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 67 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 36%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.074 / def 1.187 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.938 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.65
VfL Wolfsburg xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 40% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (7 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 4W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (1.07) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.94x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
40%
2.52
24%
4.08
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.39
1.65
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
6%
15.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.65 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 67 games, going 20W 19D 28L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.15 PPG from 67 outings (20W 17D 30L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.15 for VfL Wolfsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 12W 9D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.18 points per game from 33 outings (11W 6D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 66%.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 19D 28L in their last 67 games (1.18 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 20W 17D 30L in their last 67 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.36 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 64%, VfL Wolfsburg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 58% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 58% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 58% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.65 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.07 / defence 1.19 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 36%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, VfL Wolfsburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.18 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.