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Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.48 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.25 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.44 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 54%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.25 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights