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Stalemate at Borussia Mönchengladbach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 6, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 xG and SC Freiburg 2.41 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.92 / defence 1.51 against SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 57%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, SC Freiburg 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.21 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights