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Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG and SC Freiburg 1.08 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against SC Freiburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 25%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%, SC Freiburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights