🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome SC Freiburg to BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Borussia Mönchengladbach at BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, SC Freiburg have the better historical record — 3 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with SC Freiburg winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 3 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% and SC Freiburg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% | SC Freiburg 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG and SC Freiburg 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.959 / defence 0.950 | SC Freiburg attack 0.787 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.440. Data: 62 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 62 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 25%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | SC Freiburg 4.00. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

SC Freiburg lead the H2H ledger, but Borussia Mönchengladbach carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | SC Freiburg 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights