Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees FC St. Pauli travel to Borussia-Park to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borussia-Park, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.90 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for FC St. Pauli and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 4–0 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC St. Pauli trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% versus FC St. Pauli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% | FC St. Pauli 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.810 / defence 0.993 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.755 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.405. Data: 59 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 59 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 43% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 29%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | FC St. Pauli 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | FC St. Pauli 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 43% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 / FC St. Pauli 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.810 / def 0.993 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.755 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC St. Pauli xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 43% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 0W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.81) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.55
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.42
1.05
FC St. Pauli xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.05 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 19W 13D 27L from 59 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 31L across 59 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.19 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 10W 7D 12L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 7W 5D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.86 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 19W 13D 27L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 14D 31L in their last 59 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.28 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Mönchengladbach have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2025, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
0
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 48%, FC St. Pauli 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 45% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 31% of games; FC St. Pauli in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 45% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 45% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.05 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 43% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 29%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, FC St. Pauli 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 PPG, FC St. Pauli 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.