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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 2-2 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.88 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.68 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 55% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, 1. FC Heidenheim 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights