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Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 21, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 52%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights