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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen finished level at 2-2 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.26 xG and Werder Bremen 1.56 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Werder Bremen attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 53% | Draw 20% | Werder Bremen 26%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, Werder Bremen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.69 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights