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Shock result as VfB Stuttgart defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund 1-2 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.84 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 49% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 28%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 65%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.70 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights