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Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat Union Berlin 6-0 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.11 xG and Union Berlin 1.25 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 56% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 21%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, Union Berlin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Berlin's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights