Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees SC Freiburg travel to Signal Iduna Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 1 for SC Freiburg, with 1 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 4–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
SC Freiburg trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 48% versus SC Freiburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 55% | SC Freiburg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.69 xG and SC Freiburg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 0.997 / defence 0.770 | SC Freiburg attack 1.007 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. Borussia Dortmund's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Borussia Dortmund games / 42 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 52% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 23%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | SC Freiburg 4.35. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 40% | SC Freiburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 52% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.69 / SC Freiburg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 0.997 / def 0.770 | SC Freiburg attack 1.007 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.07
SC Freiburg xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Signal Iduna Park.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 52% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Record (10 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 8W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.00x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
52%
1.94
25%
3.98
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.76
1.07
SC Freiburg xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
4%
23.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.07 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 27W 10D 5L from 42 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 15L across 42 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 16W 3D 2L from 21 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 6W 4D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Freiburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.64 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg in 64%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 10D 5L in their last 42 games (2.17 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 18W 9D 15L in their last 42 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.43 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 38%, SC Freiburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Borussia Dortmund) and 62% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 48% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.