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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 6, as Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.82 xG and RB Leipzig 0.79 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.17 / defence 0.64 against RB Leipzig attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 62% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 16%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 67%, RB Leipzig 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

RB Leipzig's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.79 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights