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Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FSV Mainz 05.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat FSV Mainz 05 3-1 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.69 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.56 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.31 / defence 0.95 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 41% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 36%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 62%, FSV Mainz 05 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.63 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights