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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sun 30 Mar 2025

16:30

Venue

SIGNAL IDUNA PARK

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Borussia Dortmund Win

41%

Borussia Dortmund

2.44

23%

Draw

4.27

36%

FSV Mainz 05

2.81

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.2%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.6%

Home win

1 – 2

8.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.69

Borussia Dortmund xG

Total xG

3.24

1.56

FSV Mainz 05 xG

41%
23%
36%
Borussia DortmundDrawFSV Mainz 05

2.44

41%

Home win

4.27

23%

Draw

2.81

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

41%

Over 3.5

2.44

59%

Under 3.5

1.69

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.55

36%

BTTS No

2.81

Clean Sheet

21%

Borussia Dortmund

4.74

19%

FSV Mainz 05

5.40

Win to Nil

9%

Borussia Dortmund

11.56

7%

FSV Mainz 05

15.20

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.9 6.1 4.7 2.5 1.0 0.3
1 6.6 10.2 8.0 4.1 1.6 0.5
2 5.6 8.6 6.7 3.5 1.4 0.4
3 3.1 4.9 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2
4 1.3 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.687
λ Away (xG) 1.557
Total xG 3.244
League avg home goals 1.514
League avg away goals 1.409
Borussia Dortmund attack strength 1.306
Borussia Dortmund defence strength 0.951
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 1.162
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.854
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 60