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Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out FC St. Pauli 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat FC St. Pauli 3-2 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.78 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.61 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.15 / defence 0.64 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.66 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 11%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 62%, FC St. Pauli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights