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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 18

Kick-off

Sat 17 Jan 2026

14:30

Venue

Signal Iduna Park

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Borussia Dortmund Win

64%

Borussia Dortmund

1.55

25%

Draw

4.04

11%

FC St. Pauli

9.29

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.3%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

14.5%

Home win

1 – 1

9.9%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.78

Borussia Dortmund xG

Total xG

2.40

0.61

FC St. Pauli xG

64%
25%
Borussia DortmundDrawFC St. Pauli

1.55

64%

Home win

4.04

25%

Draw

9.29

11%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

39%

BTTS Yes

2.54

61%

BTTS No

1.65

Clean Sheet

54%

Borussia Dortmund

1.84

17%

FC St. Pauli

5.96

Win to Nil

35%

Borussia Dortmund

2.86

2%

FC St. Pauli

55.34

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.1 5.6 1.7 0.3 0.1
1 16.3 9.9 3.0 0.6 0.1
2 14.5 8.9 2.7 0.5 0.1
3 8.6 5.3 1.6 0.3
4 3.9 2.4 0.7 0.1
5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.785
λ Away (xG) 0.610
Total xG 2.395
League avg home goals 1.784
League avg away goals 1.447
Borussia Dortmund attack strength 1.151
Borussia Dortmund defence strength 0.637
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.661
FC St. Pauli defence strength 0.870
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 51 / 50