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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Heidenheim 3-2 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.48 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.87 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.28 / defence 0.76 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 18% | 1. FC Heidenheim 10%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 62%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights